NFL Week 4: Brutal beat-down addition

Oct 06 2009 Published by under Uncategorized

Two things happen in week four that can make for ugly weeks in pools that pick against the spread. The first is that bye weeks come in and there are two fewer games to pick, so the scores look worse than the previous three weeks even if the success rate is the same. More importantly, however, is that Vegas has a couple of weeks of evidence to figure out which teams are actually good and which teams were just surrounded by hype. This usually translates to "better" lines, from the standpoint of Vegas, making it harder to pick against them. For the next 5 weeks, anyone who manages a double-digit win week will almost certainly prevail for the week.
Many of us were solidly thumped this week, with a slew of 5s and 6s on the board, but two people came oh, so close to double digits, with 9 wins. PiT continues her run of strong showing, clearly demonstrating that prior knowledge of football only clouds one's judgment when making picks and that an alternative system can do well (over at least 4 weeks). However, the tie breaker this week goes to Candid Engineer, who came back strong once she started paying attention to the spread. Congrats to CE!
Because our league drops the lowest score for each person, I was able to maintain the overall lead with 30 points. Odyssey and PiT are close behind with 29 each and there is a four-way tie for fourth place at 27 points, with Mad Hatter, Nat, Alyssa and Tom@microworld all battling it out. DGT sits alone with 26 points and CE, Chall, Tideliar and AA are tied up with 25. Driving the tiny Shriner car in the rear is Genomic Repairman with 24 points, but the spread from front to back is merely 6 points, which can be made up quickly.
Good luck to all next week and CE, come get your trophy.

8 responses so far

  • Thomas Joseph says:

    I noticed that a couple of last second late moves in the spread cost me at least one game. I can't remember which one it was, but the spread was 9, and then was moved to 8.5 and the final difference in the game was ... you guessed it, 9 points. Taking the points didn't work that time around.

  • Alyssa says:

    Congrats CE!What I love about this pool is that every game is now meaningful to me. I was seriously screaming at the TV when Baltimore had three TD chances in the dying seconds of their game in order to beat the spread - and they didn't make it. And the Cincinati/Cleveland game going into overtime - what a barn burner that was!

  • chall says:

    Congrats CE! And PLS for being in the overall lead.(still grumpy in the "less than the average corner" aka sore loser 😉 )

  • tideliar says:

    "Driving the tiny Shriner car in the rear is..."led to a full on nose-laugh of bagel all over my keyboard. +1 and Push Ups Sir!

  • Professor in Training says:

    prior knowledge of football only clouds one's judgment when making picks I readily admit knowing (and caring) very little about American football but am very well versed in football from other parts of the world ... you know ... football games where people actual KICK the stinking ball. It's all about being able to transfer and apply knowledge to a new arena. Or having a system that has absolutely nothing to do with football but that still yields results.

  • Odyssey says:

    Congrats to CE! And to PiT! And to PlS for holding on to the lead. Barely. Take note PlS, two foreigners are poised to knock you from your perch!

  • Professor in Training says:

    I wasn't going to rub it in about Odyssey and I (almost) beating the Americans at their own game ... but since he's already gone down that road, times that by two.

  • Candid Engineer says:

    Yay!! I won. 🙂 How do I get my trophy.

Leave a Reply